I have been playing with algo trading off and on for about a year. I am planning on day trading on the MES at some point, which from my understanding is fairly hard to do. I have not done real trading yet, and I don't believe I have found any strategy that is reliable.
With everything I have been reading lately, it seems that it is impossible to have any confidence in a strategy. Overfitting seems unavoidable. Technical analysis seems useless and based on the assumption that past patterns will repeat. OHLC historical data is barely reliable to test on. The dynamic of the markets seem to constantly change to something never seen before (the fact that the random walk hypothesis exists makes me lose all hope). To find anything profitable I have to find something that millions of other people missed. How on earth can I even begin to think I can find anything profitable when everyone has tried everything? And if I somehow seem to find something profitable, it more than likely is just luck that will work for only a couple weeks. For all these reasons, I feel that it is basically impossible to find a profitable strategy unless you have a giant account to mess around with or are working in some fund with a team of traders.
Has anyone had success at all? I mean is this even possible or is this all a nearly useless pursuit?
Submitted October 01, 2020 at 01:23PM by Johnus-Smittinis